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【美国经济】新年快乐 2015年01月13日 12:23:54

America’s economy

美国经济

 

A happy new year

新年快乐

 

Growth is likely to be robust in 2015—and will start to benefit ordinary families

2015年美国经济有望稳健增长并开始惠及普通民众

 

Jan 3rd 2015 | WASHINGTON, DC | From the print edition of The Economist

 

译者:icear

 

EIGHT out of ten voters told exit pollsters in November that they were worried about the economy. That is one reason why the new Congress, which starts sitting next week, is dominated by Republicans. Yet there is mounting evidence that the benefits of the economic recovery—long concentrated among the rich—are spreading to ordinary Americans.

 

在11月投票结束后的票站调查中,十分之八的投票者称他们对美国经济表示担忧。这也是下星期即将就职的新一届国会会由共和党人把持的原因之一。但是越来越多证据表明,经济复苏的好处正传导至美国普通民众。

 

On December 23rd GDP growth for the third quarter was revised up to 5%—its fastest pace since 2003—having grown by a nearly-as-impressive 4.6% in the second quarter (see chart). To be sure, America is making up for ground lost in the first quarter, when GDP actually shrank because the weather was awful and companies cut inventories. For the past 12 months GDP is up 2.7%: respectable but not amazing. Forecasters surveyed by The Economist think America will grow 3% next year.

 

12月23日公布的美国第三季度GDP增速被上修至5%——这是其自2003年以来最高的增速——甚至超过了第二季度令人惊叹的4.6%。可以肯定的是美国正在收复2014年第一季度的失地,实际上,美国的GDP在2014年第一季度因恶劣的天气和企业库存减少影响有所萎缩。过去的12个月内美国GDP增加了2.7%:表现不错但并不令人吃惊。接受经济学人调查的预测者们认为下一年美国经济将增长3%。

 

Economists have projected similar growth rates since the recovery began, only to be disappointed. Growth has averaged just 2.3% since the recovery began in July 2009. But this time they have hard evidence on their side. Some 321,000 jobs were created in November, compared with a monthly average of 194,000 during 2013. Despite this, inflation has fallen. The Federal Reserve can thus continue to keep monetary policy unusually loose, and asset prices are soaring. The Dow Jones Industrial Average passed 18,000 for the first time shortly before Christmas.

 

经济学家们在美国经济开始复苏时曾经做出过类似预测,但结果令人失望。自从2009年6月经济复苏开始以来,美国平均GDP增速仅为2.3%。而这一次他们掌握了支持他们预测的确凿证据。2014年11月就业岗位增加了32.1万,相比之下,2013年全年平均每月仅增加19.4万。但尽管如此,通胀水平却出现下降。美联储因此得以继续维持超常宽松的货币政策,而资产价格也一路飙升。圣诞节即将到来之际道琼斯工业平均指数第一次升破18000点。

 

Consumer sentiment has grown jollier in recent months—as jolly as it has been since before the recession, according to the University of Michigan. For several reasons, the good mood is likely to last into 2015. One is the composition of recent growth: it is the result of solid household spending, the most important component of demand. It grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the third quarter, and may grow 4% or more in the current quarter, reckons Morgan Stanley, a bank.

 

据密歇根大学调查显示,最近数月消费者信心不断好转,已经达到经济衰退前水平。这种乐观情绪有可能持续至2015年。原因有几个,一是构成近期经济增长的因素:经济增长是家庭开支这一美国经济需求最重要的组成部分表现稳健带来的结果。美国第三季度家庭开支增速年率为3.2%,据投行摩根士丹利预计,当前季度(2014年第四季度)的增速将达4%或以上。

 

Two powerful tailwinds are helping. The first is the big drop in the price of oil, from $110 per barrel in June to below $60. Cheaper petrol holds down inflation and leaves American consumers with more money to spend on other things. (Although America produces more oil and imports less of it than five years ago, it remains a net importer.) Saudi Arabia seems willing to tolerate even lower prices to protect its market share, so the boost may last.

 

两个强有力的因素充当了助力。第一个就是油价的大幅下跌,油价从6月时的110美元/桶跌至了如今的60美元/桶下方(现在WTI已经跌破50美元了,哈哈)。更便宜的原油价格抑制了通胀上升,也另美国消费者拥有更多资金购买其它物品。(虽然美国与五年前相比原油产量上升、进口量下降,但他仍然属于原油净进口国家)沙特阿拉伯似乎愿意为保护市

场份额忍受更低的油价,所以(油价走低)对美国经济的提振或将继续下去。

 

The other, even stronger, tailwind is growing incomes. Job growth is accelerating, and there are signs, albeit faint, of an uptick in wages. America’s underlying potential growth rate has slipped in recent years, from 3% or more a decade ago to around 2%, thanks to a slower-growing workforce and lacklustre productivity. So any growth rate above 2% helps to use up spare capacity. Labour market data confirm this: non-farm employment grew faster in 2014 than in any year since the 1990s, and unemployment has fallen to 5.8%. On current trends, it could drop close to 5% within a year, less than many estimates of the natural rate of unemployment (at which a labour shortage puts upward pressure on wages and prices).

 

另一个更为利好的因素是薪资增长。就业岗位数量正在加速上升,且有微弱迹象表明薪资有所增加。近年来,由于就业人数增速放缓以及生产力低下,美国潜在经济增速从十年前的3%以上下滑至了2%左右。高于2%的经济增速有助于增加对闲置产能的利用。就业数据肯定了这一点:2014年非农就业人口增速为上世纪90年代以来最快,而失业率则跌至5.8%。按照目前的趋势,失业率有可能在一年内降至5%,低于不少人对美国失业率的预期(劳动力短缺将向薪资和物价施加上行压力)。

 

The median household’s real income is up 1.2% for the first 11 months of the year, according to Sentier Research, a private firm, a marked acceleration from the previous two years. That barely dents the 8% drop in median incomes between 2008 and 2011, but it does suggest that the expansion is finally reaching ordinary households.

 

据一家私营企业Sentier Research称,美国2014年前11个月的家庭实际收入中值上升了1.2%,较前两年显著上升。这无法抵消2008年至2011年间收入中值下降的8%,但这确实表明经济扩张最终触及到了普通家庭身上。

 

The joy of feeling shale-shocked

页岩油受惊 美国仍然高兴

 

Thanks to cheaper oil, the Federal Reserve now thinks inflation will end next year around 1.3%, according to projections released on December 17th, and will not return to 2%, its target, before 2

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阅读(2261)| 评论(2)

  1. 谭贝贝 2015年01月13日 17:15:12 举报
    ▼上海交大2015年CFA备考策略分享▼ 2014-1-17 14:00-16:00传递爱心 编辑:“地区+姓名”发送至“13162963778”预约
  2. 陈小予 2015年01月13日 17:20:19 举报
    回复谭贝贝: 谢谢!

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